Yize engxenyeni yesibili ka-2021, ezinye izinkampani zezimoto zaveza ukuthi inkinga yokushoda kwe-chip ngo-2022 izothuthukiswa, kepha ama-OEM anyusile ukuthengwa kanye nomqondo womdlalo komunye nomunye, okuhambisana nokuhlinzekwa kwamandla okukhiqiza ama-chip ebanga lezimoto asebekhulile Amabhizinisi asesesigabeni sokwandisa umthamo wokukhiqiza, futhi imakethe yamanje yomhlaba wonke isathinteke kakhulu ngenxa yokuntuleka kwe-cores.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngoshintsho olusheshayo lwemboni yezimoto ekufakweni kukagesi kanye nezobunhloli, uchungechunge lwezimboni lokuhlinzekwa kwama-chip luzophinde lube nezinguquko ezimangalisayo.
1. Ubuhlungu be-MCU ngaphansi kokuntuleka komgogodla
Manje uma sibheka emuva ekushoda kwama-cores okuqale ekupheleni kuka-2020, ukuqubuka ngokungangabazeki kuyimbangela enkulu yokungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa kwama-chips ezimoto. Yize ukuhlaziya okunzima kwesakhiwo sohlelo lokusebenza lwama-chips e-MCU (microcontroller) womhlaba wonke kukhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2020, ukusatshalaliswa kwama-MCU kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ze-elekthronikhi kuzothatha ama-33% emakethe yezicelo ephansi, kodwa uma kuqhathaniswa nehhovisi elikude eliku-inthanethi Ngokuphathelene nabaklami bama-chip okhuphukayo, izisekelo zama-chip kanye nokupakishwa nokuhlolwa kwezinkinga ezithinteke kakhulu yizinkampani ezithintekile.
Izitshalo zokukhiqiza ama-chip ezingaphansi kwezimboni ezidinga abasebenzi abaningi zizobhekana nokushoda okukhulu kwabasebenzi kanye nokungabi bikho kwemali engenayo ngonyaka ka-2020. Ngemuva kokuthi umklamo we-chip okhuphuka uguqulwe waba yizidingo zezinkampani zezimoto, awukwazanga ukuhlela ngokugcwele ukukhiqizwa, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi ama-chips alethwe ngokugcwele. Ezandleni zefekthri yezimoto, isimo somthamo onganele wokukhiqiza imoto siyavela.
Ngo-Agasti nyakenye, imboni yakwa-STMicroelectronics' Muar e-Muar, e-Malaysia yaphoqeleka ukuthi ivale amafekthri athile ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane olusha lomqhele, futhi ukuvala shaqa kwaholela ngokuqondile ekuhlinzekweni kwama-chips e-Bosch ESP/IPB, i-VCU, i-TCU nezinye izinhlelo ezisesimweni sokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla isikhathi eside.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo-2021, izinhlekelele zemvelo ezihambisana nokuzamazama komhlaba nemililo zizobangela ukuthi abanye abakhiqizi bangakwazi ukukhiqiza ngesikhathi esifushane. Ngo-February nyakenye, ukuzamazama komhlaba kwadala umonakalo omkhulu enkampanini yaseJapan iRenesas Electronics, engenye yezinkampani ezinkulu ezihlinzeka ngama-chips emhlabeni.
Ukungalungiswa kahle kwesidingo samashiphu ezimoto ngezinkampani zezimoto, okuhambisana neqiniso lokuthi izindwangu ezihamba phezulu ziguqule amandla okukhiqiza ama-chips angaphakathi kwemoto abe ama-chips wabathengi ukuze kuqinisekiswe izindleko zezinto zokwakha, kubangele i-MCU ne-CIS ezinokugqagqana okuphezulu kakhulu phakathi kwama-chips ezimoto kanye nemikhiqizo ye-elekthronikhi evamile. (Inzwa yesithombe ye-CMOS) ishoda kakhulu.
Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, okungenani kunezinhlobo ezingu-40 zemishini yendabuko ye-semiconductor yezimoto, futhi isamba senani lamabhayisikili asetshenzisiwe ngu-500-600, ahlanganisa ikakhulukazi i-MCU, ama-semiconductors amandla (IGBT, MOSFET, njll.), izinzwa kanye namadivayisi ahlukahlukene e-analog. Izimoto ezizimelayo nazo Kuzosetshenziswa uchungechunge lwemikhiqizo efana nama-adas asizayo chips, CIS, AI processors, lidars, millimeter-wave radars kanye ne-MEMS.
Ngokwenani lesidingo sezimoto, okuthinteka kakhulu kule nkinga yokushoda okukhulu ukuthi imoto yendabuko idinga ama-chips e-MCU angaphezu kuka-70, kanti i-MCU yezimoto i-ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) kanye ne-ECU (Izingxenye Eziyinhloko ze-chip main control chip). Sithatha isizathu esiyinhloko sokwehla kwe-Haval H6 eyanikezwa i-Great Wall izikhathi eziningi kusukela ngonyaka odlule njengesibonelo, i-Great Wall yathi ukwehla okukhulu kokuthengiswa kwe-H6 ezinyangeni eziningi kwakungenxa yokungatholakali okwanele kwe-Bosch ESP esetshenzisiwe. I-Euler Black Cat ne-White Cat edume phambilini baphinde bamemezela ukumiswa okwesikhashana kokukhiqiza ngoMashi kulo nyaka ngenxa yezinkinga ezinjengokuncishiswa kokunikezwa kwe-ESP nokukhuphuka kwentengo yama-chip.
Ngokudabukisayo, nakuba amafekthri e-auto chip akha futhi enika amandla imigqa emisha yokukhiqiza yama-wafer ngo-2021, futhi ezama ukudlulisela inqubo yama-auto chips kulayini wokukhiqiza omdala kanye nomugqa omusha wokukhiqiza ongu-12-intshi esikhathini esizayo, ukuze kwandiswe umthamo wokukhiqiza futhi azuze umnotho wesilinganiso, Nokho, umjikelezo wokulethwa kwemishini ye-semiconductor uvame ukuba ngaphezu kwesigamu sonyaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuthatha isikhathi eside ukulungisa umugqa wokukhiqiza, ukuqinisekiswa komkhiqizo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamandla okukhiqiza, okwenza amandla amasha okukhiqiza asebenze ngo-2023-2024. .
Okumele ukubalula ukuthi nakuba ingcindezi isidonse isikhathi eside, izinkampani zezimoto zisanethemba ngemakethe. Futhi umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza ama-chip umiselwe ukuxazulula inkinga yamanje enkulu yokukhiqiza ama-chip esikhathini esizayo.
2. Inkundla yempi entsha ngaphansi kobuhlakani bukagesi
Kodwa-ke, embonini yezimoto, ukuxazululwa kwenkinga yamanje ye-chip kungaxazulula kuphela isidingo esiphuthumayo sokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe yamanje kanye nokufunwa kwe-asymmetry. Ebusweni benguquko yezimboni zikagesi nezihlakaniphile, ingcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwamashidi ezimoto izokhula ngokuphawulekayo esikhathini esizayo.
Ngokukhula kwesidingo sokulawulwa okudidiyelwe kwezimoto kwemikhiqizo efakwe ugesi, futhi ngesikhathi sokuthuthukiswa kwe-FOTA nokushayela okuzenzakalelayo, inani lama-chips ezimoto zamandla amasha liye lathuthukiswa lisuka ku-500-600 ngenkathi yezimoto zikaphethiloli laya ku-1,000 laya ku-1,200. Isibalo sezinhlobo zezilwane sikhuphuke sisuka ku-40 saya ku-150.
Abanye ochwepheshe embonini yezimoto bathi emkhakheni wezimoto zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu esikhathini esizayo, inani lama-chips emoto eyodwa lizokhula izikhathi eziningana libe yizicucu ezingaphezu kuka-3,000, futhi inani lama-semiconductors ezimoto ezindlekweni zemoto yonke lizokhuphuka lisuka ku-4% ngo-2019 liye ku-12 ngo-2020% futhi lingakhuphuka ngo-2025% kuphela. kusho ukuthi enkathini yobuhlakani bukagesi, isidingo sama-chips ezimoto siyakhula, kodwa futhi sibonisa ukukhuphuka okusheshayo kobunzima bobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko zama-chips adingekayo ezimotweni.
Ngokungafani nama-OEMs endabuko, lapho u-70% wama-chips ezimotweni zikaphethiloli engu-40-45nm futhi u-25% engama-chips ane-low-spec ngaphezu kuka-45nm, ingxenye yama-chips kunqubo engu-40-45nm yezimoto zikagesi ezivamile nezisezingeni eliphezulu emakethe yehle yafika ku-25%. 45%, kuyilapho ingxenye yama-chips angaphezu kwe-45nm inqubo ingu-5% kuphela. Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, ama-chips avuthiwe asezingeni eliphezulu angaphansi kuka-40nm kanye nama-chips athuthuke kakhulu e-10nm kanye ne-7nm ayizindawo zokuncintisana ezintsha enkathini entsha yemboni yezimoto.
Ngokombiko wenhlolovo okhishwe yiHushan Capital ngo-2019, inani lama-semiconductors kagesi kuyo yonke imoto likhule ngokushesha lisuka ku-21% ngesikhathi sezimoto zikaphethiloli laya ku-55%, kanti ama-MCU chips ehle asuka ku-23% aya ku-11%.
Kodwa-ke, amandla okukhiqiza ama-chip akhulayo adalulwe abakhiqizi abahlukahlukene asakhawulelwe kakhulu kuma-MCU endabuko njengamanje abhekele ukulawula injini/i-chassis/umzimba.
Ezimotweni zikagesi ezihlakaniphile, ama-AI chips anesibopho sokubona ukushayela okuzenzakalelayo kanye nokuhlanganisa; amamojula wamandla afana ne-IGBT (isango elivinjiwe i-dual transistor) elibhekele ukuguqulwa kwamandla; ama-sensor chips okuqapha i-radar yokushayela ngokuzenzakalelayo asenyuke kakhulu isidingo. Cishe kuzoba wumjikelezo omusha wezinkinga “zokuswela umnyombo” izinkampani zezimoto ezizobhekana nazo esigabeni esilandelayo.
Kodwa-ke, esigabeni esisha, okuvimbela izinkampani zezimoto kungase kungabi inkinga yamandla okukhiqiza ephazanyiswe izici zangaphandle, kodwa "intamo enamathele" ye-chip evinjelwe uhlangothi lobuchwepheshe.
Uma sithatha isidingo sama-chips e-AI alethwe ubuhlakani njengesibonelo, ivolumu yekhompuyutha yesoftware yokushayela ngokuzenzakalelayo isivele ifinyelele ezingeni le-TOPS enamadijithi amabili (ukusebenza kwesigidigidi ngomzuzwana), futhi amandla ekhompuyutha ama-MCU ezimoto zendabuko awakwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zekhompiyutha zezimoto ezizimele. Ama-AI chips afana nama-GPU, ama-FPGA, nama-ASIC angenile emakethe yezimoto.
Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka odlule, i-Horizon yamemezela ngokusemthethweni ukuthi umkhiqizo wayo wesizukulwane sesithathu wezinga lemoto, i-Journey 5 series chips, ukhishwe ngokusemthethweni. Ngokusho kwedatha esemthethweni, ama-chips ochungechunge lwe-Journey 5 anamandla okwenza ikhompuyutha angu-96TOPS, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okungu-20W, kanye nesilinganiso sokusebenza kahle kwamandla esingu-4.8TOPS/W. . Uma kuqhathaniswa nobuchwepheshe benqubo ye-16nm ye-chip ye-FSD (i-autonomous driving function) eyakhishwa u-Tesla ngo-2019, imingcele ye-chip eyodwa enamandla okwenza ikhompuyutha angu-72TOPS, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okungu-36W kanye nesilinganiso sokusebenza kahle kwamandla okungu-2TOPS/W kwenziwe ngcono kakhulu. Le mpumelelo iphinde yazuza umusa nokubambisana ezinkampanini eziningi zezimoto ezihlanganisa i-SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, ne-Ideal.
Iqhutshwa ubuhlakani, ukuvela kwemboni kuye kwashesha kakhulu. Kusukela ku-FSD kaTesla, ukuthuthukiswa kwama-chips okulawula amakhulu e-AI kufana nokuvula ibhokisi likaPandora. Ngokushesha ngemva kohambo lwesi-5, i-NVIDIA yakhipha ngokushesha i-chip ye-Orin ezoba yi-single-chip. Amandla ekhompuyutha akhuphukele ku-254TOPS. Mayelana nezindawo zokugcina zobuchwepheshe, uNvidia waze wabuka kuqala i-chip ye-Atlan SoC enamandla okuhlanganisa afinyelela ku-1000TOPS yomphakathi ngonyaka odlule. Njengamanje, i-NVIDIA ibambe ngokuqinile isikhundla soyedwa emakethe ye-GPU yama-chips okulawula izimoto, igcina isabelo semakethe esingu-70% unyaka wonke.
Nakuba ukungena kwesikhondlakhondla sezingcingo eziphathwayo iHuawei embonini yezimoto kususe amagagasi okuncintisana embonini ye-chip yezimoto, kwaziwa kahle ukuthi ngaphansi kokuphazanyiswa kwezinto zangaphandle, uHuawei unolwazi olucebile lokuklama ngenqubo ye-7nm ye-SoC, kodwa akakwazi ukusiza abakhiqizi be-chip abaphezulu. ukukhuthazwa kwemakethe.
Izikhungo zocwaningo ziqagela ukuthi inani lamabhayisikili e-AI chip likhuphuka ngokushesha lisuka ku-$100 ngo-2019 liya e-US$1,000+ ngo-2025; ngesikhathi esifanayo, imakethe ye-chip ye-AI yezimoto yasekhaya izophinde yenyuke isuka ku-US$900 million ngo-2019 iye ku-91 ngo-2025. Ikhulu lezigidi zamadola aseMelika. Ukukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo semakethe kanye nokubusa kwezobuchwepheshe kwama-chips asezingeni eliphakeme ngokungangabazeki kuzokwenza intuthuko ehlakaniphile yesikhathi esizayo yezinkampani zezimoto ibe nzima nakakhulu.
Ngokufana nesidingo emakethe ye-chip ye-AI, i-IGBT, njengengxenye ebalulekile ye-semiconductor (okubandakanya ama-chips, ama-insulating substrates, amatheminali nezinye izinto) emotweni yamandla entsha enenani lezindleko ezifika ku-8-10%, nayo inomthelela omkhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwesikhathi esizayo kwemboni yezimoto. Nakuba izinkampani zasekhaya ezifana ne-BYD, i-Star Semiconductor, ne-Silan Microelectronics seziqalile ukuhlinzeka ngama-IGBT ezinkampanini zezimoto ezifuywayo, okwamanje, amandla okukhiqiza e-IGBT ezinkampani ezibalwe ngenhla asanqunyelwe isilinganiso sezinkampani, okwenza kube nzima ukumboza imithombo yamandla emisha yasekhaya ekhuphuka ngokushesha. ukukhula kwemakethe.
Izindaba ezinhle ukuthi njengoba kubhekenwe nesigaba esilandelayo sokuthatha iSiC esikhundleni sama-IGBT, izinkampani zaseShayina azisemuva kakhulu ekuhleleni, futhi ukwandisa amakhono e-SiC yokuklama nokukhiqiza ngokusekelwe emandleni e-IGBT e-R&D ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka kulindeleke ukusiza izinkampani zezimoto nobuchwepheshe. Abakhiqizi bathola umkhawulo esigabeni esilandelayo somncintiswano.
3. I-Yunyi Semiconductor, ukukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile okuyinhloko
Ebhekene nokushoda kwama-chips embonini yezimoto, u-Yunyi uzibophezele ekuxazululeni inkinga yokuhlinzeka ngezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor kumakhasimende embonini yezimoto. Uma ufuna ukwazi ngezesekeli ze-Yunyi Semiconductor futhi ubuze, sicela uchofoze isixhumanisi:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-25-2022